Why the Cylons would fail on Virgon

[Tabitha]

As anyone who has read Legacies, or Fields of Iron, or my new stuff such as Chrome Berrets can tell, I am convinced, based on what I have read, and also my own reasoning, that the Cylons would have failed to capture the Colonies, and that they would have had some very pivotal battles. This is my essay on how they might have failed to take Virgon, as well as how that failure might have led to the Colonies being able to take back what they lost.

The final battle: an overview

The factors that led to Virgon being the perfect battleground were many and varied. It was a combination of timing, technology, and philosophy.
To fully understand the reasons, we must look at the attack from both human and Cylon viewpoints. Because till now, most studies have been written from human only viewpoints, which is why the failure of the Cylons to destroy Virgon, as they did the other colonies, has been mysterious, we will look at the battle and the factors that controlled it, from both sides.

Why was Virgon different from the other colonies?

Virgon was the last of the colonies to be settled. The settlers from Kobol had already managed to build settlements on the other eleven colonies decades before Virgon was established. As a result, the technology of Virgon was an odd mixture of cutting edge, and nearly primitive. The mixture is a direct result of the recent developments in technology that took place and the basic needs driving innovation. The end product of this odd mixture was to have underground structures built of ferrocrete and duralinium. The impact of building structures in this manner was that they were highly resistant to the bombing by the Cylons. The only buildings not able to withstand the bombs were the above ground buildings, which tumbled like a house of cards. The vast majority of casualties were from the collapse of those buildings.
Religion also took a major role in the development of the Virgonian colony. The development of the practical FTL drive again shifted the technology towards a more environmental edge. The buildings were designed to be mostly underground, and nearly all of the transit tubes were also underground. This shift was largely also due to the soft terrain of the islands of the archipelago. The porous soil was perfect for the crops that grew on the planned farms, but made for foundations unsuitable for tall buildings. It also made it impossible to land large ships on all the islands except for the space ports of Port Devotion and Port Harmony.
The Cylon invasion of Virgon was bottlenecked by the lack of space ports, which was a problem unique to Virgon. Of all the colonies, only Virgon was basically a water planet with thick salt seas covering the 85% of the surface. As a result, the Cylons could only commit troops to the surface through the two ports. This forced the majority of the Cylon reinforcements and primary invasion forces to stay aboard the invasion ships in orbit until the troops landing were able to clear the beach head. Since the Cylons were sure that the small land masses, as well as the low population density of Virgon would equate to light to moderate resistance, they allotted their invasion fleet accordingly. They felt that the population of Virgon, being confined to the coasts of the islands, that the bombing campaign would decimate the population and the resistance would be almost non-existent. The Cylon spy ships had recorded, correctly, that Virgon was last on the list for the cutting edge front line fighters and the top of the line weapons systems. As a result, they recorded, accurately, that the Virgonian Defense Forces were limited to only a couple hundred obsolete Mk2F Vipers, seventy light armored vehicles, and six thousand militia troops and a standing force of only three thousand. What the Cylon intelligence didn’t factor in, was that the VDF did not mothball its four thousand CF-31 Jaguars and its nine thousand MT-770 Medium Armored Tanks. It also didn’t take into account the fact that service in the VDF was mandatory for all Virgonians over the age of 15. This made for a trained and moderately effective force of nearly eleven million troops.
Another failure of the Cylons was to design the new Centurions to resist the modern infantry weapons that the colonial military was employing. They had to lighten the Centurion soldier to enable them to carry the heavier energy rifle as well as to carry the energy dissipating armor that the modern Centurion wears. The chrome effect of the new armor, while impressive and intimidating as it is, also weighs nearly twice the weight of the older ceramic covered Kevlar armor of the older obsolete models. The modernization of the Centurion reflects the mindset that the Cylons adopted during the planning of their invasion. They assumed several things, which turned out to be true of the other eleven colonies, but not for Virgon. These assumptions include believing that the Virgonian Defense Forces were few in number, poorly trained, under equipped, and a low threat. The same number of troops, with the same equipment inventory, and the same limited number of assets in other colonies would have, and indeed did, result in a quick and easy invasion.
What the Cylons found, however, was that the modernization of their Centurions had a severe and adverse reaction to their ability to fight an effective campaign against the VDF. The new laser reflective armor, while effective in deflecting large amounts of destructive energy that modern colonial small arms discharge, was next to useless against the older chemical slug throwers of the VDF armories. This alone would have been little more than a minor setback, but it was compounded by several failures of planning which can be explained by recognizing that the Cylons do not think like humans do. When planning, logic and theory play heavily into their strategy, while caution and second guessing do not. The Cylons simply assume that they will succeed, and so do not have alternatives in mind when executing their plans. They do leave some small margin for error, but one could hardly call it a backup plan.
The result of this lack of imagination was their decision to send only one invasion barge to Virgon. It was not supported by any command and control ships, or any sort of support ships. When the VDF was able to target the Cylon invasion barge with their RocShasta anti-satellite/starship missile batteries, the result was to eliminate the entire invasion force that had not been landed. This also eliminated the Cylons ability to perform aerial bombardment or reconnaissance. It also meant that the communications of the VDF were still in place after the initial assault.
Because the Cylons were over-confidant in their ability to bomb the VDF into an early submission, they decided to send their landing forces in first. This was perhaps the most important decision that the Cylons made. It worked to the VDF’s advantage in several ways. Most of the bombers were still aboard the invasion barge when the RocShasta missile struck it in the main armory. The result was the instant elimination of the primary means of suppressing VDF troop movements. The Cylons reacted by arming some of their Advanced Raiders with bombs and air to ground missiles. Some limited bombing was performed, and several major cities on the larger islands were firebombed and destroyed, however, the Cylons had given the VDF time to react, and the civilians, such as they are, were quick to retreat into the underground shelters. The citizens who were still in the VDF also reported to their units in larger numbers than the Cylons had anticipated.
The plucky VDF forces were able to predict the landing force would be concentrated on Port Devotion, and that Port Harmony would be a secondary landing site. This is due to the size of the ports, as well as the size of the ships

[Tabitha]

needed to land a fighting force, based on the ships used in the last Cylon war. It was here that the Cylons had tipped their hand without realizing it. They had simply improved the basic design of their landing ships over the years, which meant that the VDF was not only familiar with the design, but also with the performance of the ships. As such, the VDF was well aware that any invasion force would have to be based from Port Devotion. A decision was made to limit the development of Port Harmony to 65% of the size of Port Devotion. With the entire invasion force limited to two ports, which were entirely unsuited to handling the massive Cylon ships, the number, quality of support, and ability to reinforce the invasion was crippled from the start.
The bombing campaign failed, due to the lack of ability to launch large bombers, since they were destroyed with the landing barge, as well as the highly effective VDF anti-aircraft abilities. The ground assault failed due to the inability to land sufficient ground forces, as well as the lack of ability to move those troops to strategic positions once landed. This meant a long slow fight over tough terrain and constant guerilla style attacks by the militia and VDF. Knowing that the technologically superior Centurions would enjoy initial success, the VDF commanders wisely traded terrain for strength, allowing the Cylons to drive deep into their lines. The Cylons were then faced with long weak supply lines, and large weak fronts. The Cylons miss-interpreted the ease of their initial drives as weakness of the VDF, which made perfect sense to them, since they had underestimated the VDF to begin with. Since they had concluded that the VDF would not put up much of a resistance anyhow, it never occurred to the Cylons to see the situation as anything other than what it was, a trap, into which the Cylons marched with not second thoughts.
The lack of Cylon armor was also due to the destruction of the invasion barge. The VDF was able to put much of their armored forces into battle early on, to route the Cylon advances away from most of the civilian shelters, which reduced civilian casualties greatly. The Cylons didn’t question this, interpreting it as a move by the VDF to try to counter-attack.
Plucky isn’t exactly the best word to describe the VDF, but it certainly comes pretty close. The VDF were able to react faster to the Cylon tactics than the Cylons were able to change tactics. The VDF ability to bring out their own air power to counter the large number of Advanced Raiders shocked the Cylons. The Cylon commanders were immediately placed on the defensive and never recovered the initiative. The heavy Raiders were excellent in space, and even in light gravity wells, but in the atmosphere, they were no better than the Vipers, and were no match at all for the old Jaguars. When the VDF pulled their Mk2F’s engines and began to place them in the engine compartments of the Jaguars, the result was an aircraft that not only was far superior to the Raider in atmosphere, but was just different enough that the Cylons did not recognize it as the older Jaguar, and they spent far too much time and effort trying to research an aircraft, taking precious resources away from their war effort.
The introduction of the Avalon and her compliment of Prowler stealth craft compounded the Cylon problems. Since the Cylons had lost their invasion barge, they also lost communication with the rest of the Cylon invasion forces. The result was that the Cylons had no idea things had gone so horribly wrong for them on Virgon. They never sent the much needed reinforcements, nor did they investigate the odd silence of their “far superior” invasion force, since it was never considered even remotely possible that the VDf could achieve any real margin of victory, much less nearly destroy the invasion forces before they were launched.
The arrival of the Avalon would have been high priority for the Cylons, but the Virgon invasion forces had no idea it was there until it was far too late, and had no ability to report that information even if they had known. The arrival of the Shadx and the Prendle simply compounded the problem.
The only factor that the Cylons could not have predicted, had they used better intelligence and had they also considered that the VDF strength properly, the obvious bottle-neck of the two ports, and had they anticipated the possibility of losing their invasion barge and had a secondary barge sent, was the military leadership of the VDF in general. The VDF was not the simple militia that the rest of the colonies assumed it to be. The case that even the other colonies under-estimated the VDF led the Cylons to basically dismiss it as a viable military threat to them. The leadership of the VDF was not the typical peacetime officer pool that the rest of the colonies drew from. From the top down, the VDF filtered out all but the most experienced, best trained officers. That command staff, of elite officers, each combat experienced and all from the best academies, each built their units under the colonial special-forces model. Even the two year inductees performing their mandatory term in high school were trained and treated as elite military units. The yearly eight week

[Tabitha]

refresher course was also mandatory. In war games, the VDF seldom sent their best units, instead they sent their newest and least experienced units, to provide those units with valuable experience and bolster morale. The result was that the militia units of the VDF were far superior to most standing units from other colonies. When the Cylon invasion ships made landfall they found themselves amidst heavy disciplined fire from old, but highly serviceable armor and infantry weapons. The casualties were high, and climbed steadily as the VDF troops gained confidence and real world experience.
The Cylons performed bravely, having no ability to feel fear, but they also performed like novice troops facing enemy guns for the first time. This was due to the Cylons stationing their newest units in the areas of least resistance. They figured that the newest troops would get their first blood on an easy target, with little chance of defeat. They figured wrong, and the lack of experience doomed them from the start.
The Cylon command was also inexperienced. His designation was IL-770. Captured transmissions and documents reveal that he had intended to perform his invasion based off the Aerilon model, which centered around a strong beach head with aerial envelopment on the flanks of any front, while harassment teams exploited any gaps behind enemy lines. The exploit teams were to be older model Centurions with more experience, however, those troops were upgraded with new armor and were sent to Tauron to assist the attack there against the renown Tauron infantry. This change of plans would not have been critical if the skirmishers had been replaced by troops trained for the task, but the IL-770 had decided to simply have the skirmishers follow the exact orders that he had given the experienced troops, expecting the same results. Obviously that didn’t happen.
The advanced armor of the new model Cylons was almost ineffectual against the older chemical slug throwing infantry weapons that the VDF used. While there were reported instances of the chrome armor deflecting some shots, the thinner metal armor actually created more problems than it solved.
The salt in the sea water that covers most of the surface of Virgon began to play havoc on the metal, tarnishing it and causing corrosion in the internal circuitry of the Cylons. Also the heat that makes Virgon such an island paradise, also heated the chrome plating causing internal systems to become less efficient the longer they were in action. The VDF, however, were fighting in their own environment, and were becoming far more efficient as they gained experience, and morale was raised by victories.
Not everything went badly for the Cylons however. The Advanced Raiders did manage to suppress the VDF air power at first. The Jaguars were not VTOL, and therefore were reliant on runways, which became primary targets for the Cylon air strikes. Also, the initial drives of the Cylons were costly for the VDF, as the warriors were still novice and fell for the tricks that the IL-770 designed. The casualties dropped as the drives stalled. Cylon losses increased dramatically once the supplies were cut off, and the Centurions were forced to rely solely on their own small arms, and were forced to face the VDF armor.
The VDF wet Navy was caught in port and the initial bombing campaign decimated them. While the VDF third and fifth fleets were under weigh, they played almost no part in the battle. The VDF air force did play a huge role however. The Navy Aviation also played a large role, flying off their flat tops and submersible carriers to take part in combat sorties from land bases. Had the Cylons found a means to land more troops and transports, the Navy would have been in position to harass them in their efforts. But the fact that much of the Navy rested on the bottom of the sea in the first days of the invasion, the Navy was still a capable force, they just were not in a position to project their might on the Cylon forces.

The actual attack was well orchestrated in its theory, and simplicity, though a disaster in exercise. The first day went well for the Cylons. Their invasion barge swept the VDF defense station off the grid with its first volley of fire. The first shots of the war, as far as Virgon was concerned, were precise, and effective. The space station was vaporized along with a colonial Corvette and a dozen system defense craft. The Cylons also managed to force several colonial frigates out of system. They also landed seventeen drop ships and three invasion transports before the VDF RocShasta missiles found their mark. In the typically logical manner that Cylons function under, the hundreds of Cylon Raiders and Advanced Raiders launched from the doomed invasion barge, the VDF Mk2A Vipers launched to meet them. Again, the momentum was with the Cylons as the Raiders blew through the first sorties. The losses by the VDF nearly decimated the air power of the shocked defenders. In fact, in the first week of the invasion, the VDF could only project air power over a couple hundred square miles, and even that was sketchy at best.
The ground war went well for the Cylons. They were able to break out early in the first few hours of the war. The VDF forces were not in place to defend, being taken by complete surprise. The Cylon bombers that had been assigned to the beachhead survived the destruction of the invasion barge, and they played a key role in the early successes of the invasion. It was the threat of the Cylon bombers that kept the VDF Navy at bay. The Cylon bombers also caused the only real destruction on Virgon. The Cylon armor was eliminated in the first few battles by the numerically superior VDF armor. Had that Cylon armor been able to break out and run behind the VDF lines according to their plan of battle, the destruction to Virgonian cities and resources would have been just as complete as on other colonies.
The second day of the invasion saw many changes in the pace and initiative of the war. The momentum slowed for the Cylons, as they were forced to accept that their barge was eliminated. They also came to realize that they were isolated from the rest of the invasion forces of the other colonies. They had lost their intelligence gathering capabilities as well as the vast majority of their invasion force. The VDF has been able to react and coordinate their defense. The Navy was able to get their aviation assets into place to protect the air forces interceptors and the bases from which those interceptors were based. The VDF armor was able to roll into position behind their pre-positioned lines. Since the two space ports were obviously the only two places where invasion sized landing craft could set down without sinking into the soft terrain, the VDF had wisely designed all of their defense strategies around holding, or retaking those ports. The loss of Port Devotion was planned for, and the VDF had pre-staged their supplies and armor for exactly this situation. The VDF had fallen back at first, letting the Cylons press deep into the country side. This worked against the Cylons in several ways. They had a difficult time supporting their infantry, the steep hills of the inner island terrain made it difficult for their Raiders, which were hardly maneuverable, to concentrate fire on the VDF. Also, the VDF had bore hundreds of miles of tunnels throughout the mountains, allowing them to seemingly disappear and re-appear at will. Though they took serious losses at first, the VDF bounced back as the militia troops reported to their units after having secured their families in shelters. The second day saw a sudden growth in strength of

[Tabitha]

numbers for the VDF. The Cylons were stunned by the amount of fire they received from what they had believed to be a relatively small and poorly armed militia. Instead they were receiving concentrated effective and highly disciplined fire from hardened positions. The anti-armor missiles and mortars that the VDF employed would not have made as much difference, had the Cylons had their full compliment of armor, and artillery, but they had only a handful of pieces and only a couple dozen armored vehicles, none of which were capable of going head to head with the venerable old MBT, the HT-93 Comet tanks. Though the Comet would have suffered greatly against the Cylon Gorgon tank, as was proven on several other colonies, the VDF never faced the Gorgon. The battle for Port Harmony was started the second day of the invasion, with the VDF holding a line from Port Harmony to Athena City. The supply tunnels were packed with refugees but the troops were able to get through them effectively enough to counter the many break out attempts that the pressured Cylons attempted. The end of the second day ended in confused fighting in the forests of Athena City.
The next week was one of complete stagnation. Neither side was able to do much more than dig in and firm up their lines. The Cylons gave ground to pull their forces into tighter defensive positions, a tactic already used by the VDF. The strike fighters from Athena Air Station were able to support special operation strikes into Port harmony, while civilian refugees were able to escape by small shuttle lift from the small Port Valaria, which was not able to support large ships, but the small landing strips of the Naval Air Station proved perfect for the tactical shuttles from Galactica. The few thousand refugees that escaped through Port Valaria before the Galactica left might have been surprised to learn that the VDF had stopped the Cylon advance along the Celestial River, in the Ridley Forest. In fact, the VDF had retaken Athena City’s outskirts and were working with resistance fighters to map out Cylon forces and their patrol routes. The assassination of IL-770 had turned the tide against the Cylons and sent them into a spiral from which they never recovered.
The arrival of the Battlestar Medusa, then later the arrival of the Avalon and later still the Shadx and Prendle made it just a matter of time before the Cylons were mopped up. From there, it was obvious that operations to retake the colonies would best be based from Virgon, which was the most defensible colony.
That was the basis for the battle plan that was followed. The VDF was the best equipped force, the most well trained and the most intact force available, so they spearheaded the campaign. That campaign began on Aerilon and Canceron. The battle to retake those colonies is, however, another story best told by those involved.

As you see, to make it a little more interesting, I did sort of use a storyline method, but the concept was to show how the battle went so horribly wrong, and why it is possible that the Colonies were not lost, as Commander Adama feared. There is certainly lots of way that this could have gone, but I wanted to express my take, and see how others see it. Please, let me know, do you think its possible that this could have happenned? (Of course its only scifi, but heck, its good scifi, and makes for great conversation!)

tabbi

[Damocles]

Tabbi;

Speaking from a purely tactical point of view?



If the Cylon IL770 did not do that first to Virgon before committing the invasion barge: as Imperious Leader, I would melt IL770 down, and use him as paper weights.

As always;

[Tabitha]

Well considering that they wanted to keep the colonies after ejecting the humans, I doubt they would want to destroy them entirely. I think they were probably after something and the Colonials just didnt identify what that was. Wars are not fought for no reason (such as re-election) so the Cylons must have had a damn good reason to take on the colonials while fighting the moloks

tabbi

[Damocles]

Originally Posted by Tabitha

Well considering that they wanted to keep the colonies after ejecting the humans, I doubt they would want to destroy them entirely. I think they were probably after something and the Colonials just didnt identify what that was. Wars are not fought for no reason (such as re-election) so the Cylons must have had a damn good reason to take on the colonials while fighting the moloks

tabbi

From a practical point of view, of what practical use is a planet to a machine? Especialy, if it is a planet, that as Cy says to Starbuck; "promotes rust" ?

Machines would be happiest in a micro-gravity environment.

Killing the competition is the life logic of securing the resource range. The Colonials are after the same asteroids, and the comets; that the Cylons would use, as their primary resource base. Both civiizations are space-based manufacturers, so CHON and iron/nickel, as well as silicates become the source of competition.

A Chicxilub is the quickest, cheapest way of taking a planet(Almost impossible to stop). Ground war may be TV dramatic, but it makes militarily, NO SENSE. You will take the planet, after the fallut settles with a damaged, but not destroyed ecology. There is many a SF show that bungles that reality.

For example; The Day After an ABC production about nuclear war suggested that Lawrence, Kansas would be on the fringe of a catastrophioc death of civilization.

That is inaccurate.

The staggering casualties(anywhere from 1/8 to 1/3 of humanity killed) in the aftermath of that war would die, not because of the bombs(260 million tops), but from the starvation, and disease that follows; when the machines stop.

There would be a population drop(or die off) in the scramble for food that amounts to about leaving a half billion survivors.(Just as a side note, Africa will be no worse off than it is now, in such an apocalypse. China though, even if she were not hit, would be a Lamarckian horror. India might ride it out, better.)

The Earth's ecology, actually, will flourish, as the heavy hand of the Human presence upon the land is reduced. It would take us about a century to restore our dominanrt position in the heirachy of exploitation. It would take us that long to restore the transportation, and communications infrastructure we deliberately targeted.

A Chicxilub(Hypersonics and overpressure) interrupts that process, by killing anything larger than a chicken. (That would include Cylons by the way.) It will leave a simplified ecology.

It is, in fact, the first thing you do to a life bearing planet, before you remold it(terraform it) to suit yourself. Simplify the ecology by killing off the potential competitors.

As always;

[WarMachine]

Originally Posted by Damocles

From a practical point of view, of what practical use is a planet to a machine? Especialy, if it is a planet, that as Cy says to Starbuck; "promotes rust" ?

Machines would be happiest in a micro-gravity environment.

Killing the competition is the life logic of securing the resource range. The Colonials are after the same asteroids, and the comets; that the Cylons would use, as their primary resource base. Both civiizations are space-based manufacturers, so CHON and iron/nickel, as well as silicates become the source of competition.

A Chicxilub is the quickest, cheapest way of taking a planet(Almost impossible to stop). Ground war may be TV dramatic, but it makes militarily, NO SENSE. You will take the planet, after the fallut settles with a damaged, but not destroyed ecology. There is many a SF show that bungles that reality.

For example; The Day After an ABC production about nuclear war suggested that Lawrence, Kansas would be on the fringe of a catastrophioc death of civilization.

That is inaccurate.

The staggering casualties(anywhere from 1/8 to 1/3 of humanity killed) in the aftermath of that war would die, not because of the bombs(260 million tops), but from the starvation, and disease that follows; when the machines stop.

There would be a population drop(or die off) in the scramble for food that amounts to about leaving a half billion survivors.(Just as a side note, Africa will be no worse off than it is now, in such an apocalypse. China though, even if she were not hit, would be a Lamarckian horror. India might ride it out, better.)

The Earth's ecology, actually, will flourish, as the heavy hand of the Human presence upon the land is reduced. It would take us about a century to restore our dominanrt position in the heirachy of exploitation. It would take us that long to restore the transportation, and communications infrastructure we deliberately targeted.

A Chicxilub(Hypersonics and overpressure) interrupts that process, by killing anything larger than a chicken. (That would include Cylons by the way.) It will leave a simplified ecology.

It is, in fact, the first thing you do to a life bearing planet, before you remold it(terraform it) to suit yourself. Simplify the ecology by killing off the potential competitors.

As always;

Damocles,

Lot-O-points to hit on this one.

While, yes, the above is accurate from a strictly empirical standpoint, it doesn't fit the BSG 'verse at all. There are numerous cannon examples of Cylons going for a conventional military invasion of an inhabited world(Saga, YL, HoG), so there is apparently some imperative in their programming to minimize planetary-level bio-sphere damage.

That said, "Chicxilub-ing" Virgon as an example is not beyond the realm of possibility for the Imperious Leader, but there would need to be a much more pressing reason than heavy resistance.

Regarding The Day After, it was indeed very disingenuous, and you are correct in re sub-Saharan Africa, but I think you're off on the China vs India survivability issue. The PRC would lose a lot of people, but would pull through in some semblance of order....India, OTOH, would collapse outright, due to demographic/solcial factors that aren't really important here.

The other point I have issues with is your recovery timeframe, as that largely depends on the location of the primary damage. I'm certainly not being racist here, but if [event] occurs against China or India, there is little to impede recovery.....OTOH, if [event] happens to the US/Europe, you can write off recovery for a few centuries -- see the demographic-issues explanation.

[Damocles]

Originally Posted by WarMachine

Damocles,

Lot-O-points to hit on this one.

Indeed there are. It was a bit compressed.

While, yes, the above is accurate from a strictly empirical standpoint, it doesn't fit the BSG 'verse at all. There are numerous cannon examples of Cylons going for a conventional military invasion of an inhabited world(Saga, YL, HoG), so there is apparently some imperative in their programming to minimize planetary-level bio-sphere damage.

Simpification is not outside the objective parameters. It is what a rational military conducting an interstellar war would do.

That said, "Chicxilub-ing" Virgon as an example is not beyond the realm of possibility for the Imperious Leader, but there would need to be a much more pressing reason than heavy resistance.

Not logical. If after a conventional assault; you lose the landing force, you will attack again with over whelming force to obliterate resistance to secure the landings; even if your objective is ^going for a conventional military invasion of an inhabited world^ due to ^some imperative in their programming to minimize planetary-level bio-sphere damage.^ The operative here is ^secure the landings.^

Regarding The Day After, it was indeed very disingenuous, and you are correct in re sub-Saharan Africa, but I think you're off on the China vs India survivability issue. The PRC would lose a lot of people, but would pull through in some semblance of order....India, OTOH, would collapse outright, due to demographic/solcial factors that aren't really important here.

http://www.theharbinger.org/xix/000905/pinson.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogra...Mainland_China

Keep it simple and brief. While the communists have held the place together for about two generations, the traditional Chinese model is regional kingdoms, built around the river valleys, and local warlordism-even during the height of the Manchus. Given their current corrupt political structure, their chances for survival as a nation; if the industrial infrastructure of our Euro-centric civilization collapses? Exactly zero. Russia has better odds; and their chances are slim to none.

India is riddled with ethnic divisions, and it has a large internal element of disgruntled minorities(one extremeely dangerous group in particular). However, it has at least for the last one hundred fifty years been an organized nation state in all but name. Its chances of survival, as a nation, are fair.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_India

http://www.webindia123.com/india/demo/demo1.htm

The other point I have issues with is your recovery timeframe, as that largely depends on the location of the primary damage. I'm certainly not being racist here, but if [event] occurs against China or India, there is little to impede recovery.....OTOH, if [event] happens to the US/Europe, you can write off recovery for a few centuries -- see the demographic-issues explanation.

Lack of a technical knowledge base outside its major cities, will kill China.

India is not so handicapped.

Don't believe the propaganda.

US national recovery is slated to take 40-120 years. Its in the warplan. We start with 1890's technology, and build back the infrastructure.(It could be a lot faster, depending on how soon we get the steel and concrete industries back up, and rebuild our railroads.). One thing is for certain. We'd be flying again in fifty years.

And we would do it as a NATION. That is something for which the planning is most definitely oriented. Communications first, and fast.

Despite the Katrina fiasco.

I can't speak for Europe.

As always;

[WarMachine]

Originally Posted by Damocles

Simpification is not outside the objective parameters. It is what a rational military conducting an interstellar war would do.

...Except that no military force is rational....since a rational military force would run away.

Not logical. If after a conventional assault; you lose the landing force, you will attack again with over whelming force to obliterate resistance to secure the landings; even if your objective is ^going for a conventional military invasion of an inhabited world^ due to ^some imperative in their programming to minimize planetary-level bio-sphere damage.^ The operative here is ^secure the landings.^

Somehow, "...attack again with overwhelming force..." doesn't equate to slagging the planet from orbit. If Step 2 or 3 is a near-C rock, why invade bother to invade conventionally in Step 1?

Yes, we're dealing with rouge robots; and yes, in an empirical environment, a "V-Ger"-type entity wouldn't care about a whit for a biosphere optimized for "carbon-based lifeforms", but we're talking about the Cylons, not VGer.

Is the "Chicxilub Option" available? Certainly. Would the Cylons order its use? Absolutely -- but only under the correct circumstances...for which we have no real cannon evidence, as all of the planets we see the Cylons garrisoning have (apparently) intact biospheres.

[Removed stuff on India and China]

Based on the data provided, I still have to disagree with you. While China would certainly revert to the warlord model, India would as well. A LOT of Chinese would perish, but the numbers would be dwarfed by those in India.

US national recovery is slated to take 40-120 years. Its in the warplan. We start with 1890's technology, and build back the infrastructure.(It could be a lot faster, depending on how soon we get the steel and concrete industries back up, and rebuild our railroads.). One thing is for certain. We'd be flying again in fifty years.

And we would do it as a NATION. That is something for which the planning is most definitely oriented. Communications first, and fast.

Despite the Katrina fiasco.

I can't speak for Europe.

As always;

Let me say first that I am ignoring TTAPS - Carl Sagan should have been ashamed for signing off on such unscientific drivel.

That said, your statement above is strictly subjective, warplans notwithstanding, and entirely restricted to a very limited nuclear exchange. A Chicxilub-scale event, either in Mexico or either ocean reasonably close to US shores, or a 'slate-wiper' bio-weapon with a c.80% lethality will torpedo the US at a stroke, and leave only a memory.

And based on what I see of current government operational capabilities at all levels, a limited nuke exchange will do the same.

ObCBSG:

*There is circumstantial evidence, based on dialogue, that an unknown level of nuclear bombardment occured on at least Caprica.

*There is circumstantial evidence, based on dialogue, that biological agents were employed on at least some Colonies

(ref. from "Saga": Apollo and Jolly's conversation aboard the Rising Star concerning checks on foodstuffs for both radiation and "Pluton Poisoning")

Inference: With a combined nuclear, biological and extensive conventional attacks, Colonial survivors in the Colonies' Homeworlds probably won't last very long, anyway, whatever Virgon's defenders can pull off.

Note that all bets are off if the Cylon Empire collapses in civil war.

[Damocles]

Originally Posted by WarMachine

...Except that no military force is rational....since a rational military force would run away.

When a burglar breaks into your house.

Somehow, "...attack again with overwhelming force..." doesn't equate to slagging the planet from orbit. If Step 2 or 3 is a near-C rock, why invade bother to invade conventionally in Step 1?

Why indeed?

You throw a ten kilometer in diameter nickel/iron rock at an earth-type planet at fifteen kilometers per second. That should Chicxilub it nicely.

Use the rock first, then land and kill the chickens.

Yes, we're dealing with rogue robots; and yes, in an empirical environment, a "V-Ger"-type entity wouldn't care about a whit for a biosphere optimized for "carbon-based lifeforms", but we're talking about the Cylons, not VGer.

We are discussing the reduction of a populated planet by an invader. The who is somewhat important, as that drives the doctrine that the invader uses. Doctrine often dictates the outcome. The how is more important, as we discuss the rational methods for invasion. Success is the only justification for any military action.

Is the "Chicxilub Option" available? Certainly. Would the Cylons order its use? Absolutely -- but only under the correct circumstances...for which we have no real cannon evidence, as all of the planets we see the Cylons garrisoning have (apparently) intact biospheres.

Maybe the Cylon garrisoned populated planets understand the Chicxilub option and rolled over when the tin heads showed up with a rock?

Based on the data provided, I still have to disagree with you. While China would certainly revert to the warlord model, India would as well. A LOT of Chinese would perish, but the numbers would be dwarfed by those in India.

Check China's agriculture. Twent six percent of the world's fertilizer is going where?

Let me say first that I am ignoring TTAPS - Carl Sagan should have been ashamed for signing off on such unscientific drivel.

Bad science.

That said, your statement above is strictly subjective, warplans notwithstanding, and entirely restricted to a very limited nuclear exchange. A Chicxilub-scale event, either in Mexico or either ocean reasonably close to US shores, or a 'slate-wiper' bio-weapon with a c.80% lethality will torpedo the US at a stroke, and leave only a memory.

That warplan, I mentioned, postulated a population kill strike that killed a third of us(100 million); the loss of eighty percent of America's major cities, and almost one hundred percent of our industrial base.

The only way to survive a Chicxilub event is to prevent it. As I wrote, it will kill anything larger than a chicken-machines included.

And based on what I see of current government operational capabilities at all levels, a limited nuke exchange will do the same.

Katrina from the inside was VERY ugly. Say hello to Homeland Security, the biggest mistake we've made since the Department of Education.

ObCBSG:

*There is circumstantial evidence, based on dialogue, that an unknown level of nuclear bombardment occured on at least Caprica.

Agreed. Though nothing on FILM.

*There is circumstantial evidence, based on dialogue, that biological agents were employed on at least some Colonies

(ref. from "Saga": Apollo and Jolly's conversation aboard the Rising Star concerning checks on foodstuffs for both radiation and "Pluton Poisoning")

Radioactive metal salts was what I thought at the time."Pluton Poisoning" sounds too much like plutonium poisoning.

Inference: With a combined nuclear, biological and extensive conventional attacks, Colonial survivors in the Colonies' Homeworlds probably won't last very long, anyway, whatever Virgon's defenders can pull off.

You underestimate the strength of a resistance movement.

Note that all bets are off if the Cylon Empire collapses in civil war.

What civil war? Only if the IL's are like the sons of Darius.

As always;

[WarMachine]

Originally Posted by Damocles

When a burglar breaks into your house.

I simply point to the recent bust-up in FL over the state's removal of the "Duty To Retreat" requirement on homeowners, that required them essentially lock themselves in their bedrooms or flee their home entirely rather than actively resist an intruder.

Rationally and logically, defending your domicile is silly - they're just things.

Note that this is not something that I subscribe to.

Originally Posted by Damocles

Why indeed?

You throw a ten kilometer in diameter nickel/iron rock at an earth-type planet at fifteen kilometers per second. That should Chicxilub it nicely.

Use the rock first, then land and kill the chickens.

Originally Posted by Damocles

We are discussing the reduction of a populated planet by an invader. The who is somewhat important, as that drives the doctrine that the invader uses. Doctrine often dictates the outcome. The how is more important, as we discuss the rational methods for invasion. Success is the only justification for any military action.

Oh, I never doubted the military utility of the rock-from-space. The problem is that Lucifer's Hammer is the ultimate munchkin option: you destroy the vast majority of resistance outright, yes -- and render the planet largely unusable by your own forces for 5-10 local years, at least. If that suits your racial or military doctrine, cool; otherwise, you have to go down and dig them out.

Originally Posted by Damocles

Maybe the Cylon garrisoned populated planets understand the Chicxilub option and rolled over when the tin heads showed up with a rock?

Perfectly possible, but like so much else, unverifiable in cannon.

Originally Posted by Damocles

Bad science.

Now THAT'S an understantement!

Originally Posted by Damocles

That warplan, I mentioned, postulated a population kill strike that killed a third of us(100 million); the loss of eighty percent of America's major cities, and almost one hundred percent of our industrial base.

The hole in those warplans - I was actually involved in some small-unit/battalion-level tactical planning in the late 80's...and, no, don't bother asking - is that there is no viable logistic/material base to work from to 'bootstrap' back to c.1890-tech.

In a very real sense, the higher you rise on the tech ladder, the harder, faster and farther you will fall when/if it all goeth SPLAT! As an example, had Y2K been as bad as was feared, it would hve had the same effect as a nuclear attack; the effects would have taken a few months to fully mature, but mass starvation in the US would have resulted within 6 months. Why? Simple.

Most people have barely 1 week's worth of food on their shelves. Due to the efficiency of just-in-time delivery systems, the vast majority of grocery stores have c.3 days of stock on their shelves - assuming normal buying levels. Should a panic begin - and rest assured, a real Y2K or a nuke attack will most certainly cause mass panic - you can expect stores to be stormed within 4 hours

The problem here is that virtually no one remains who knows how to subsistance-farm. Remove access to industrial/collectivist farming, and most people will starve in fairly short order.

That 100million figure will double - at least - within 12months of the OOPS!

Originally Posted by Damocles

You underestimate the strength of a resistance movement.

Not at all. However, history demonstrates that no resistance movement survives for very long without significant outside assistance - in fact, Castro is the one and only example of a completely successful indig. revolution in the 20th Century: ever single other revolt that succeeded had considerable external assistance.

I don't see the Colonies getting that level of assistance at all.

Originally Posted by Damocles

What civil war? Only if the IL's are like the sons of Darius.

As always;

Inferance from comments by Baltar and Cain at various points in the series, coupled to the obvious independence of the ILs.....It's completely speculative, which is why I made it conditional.

[Damocles]

Originally Posted by WarMachine

I simply point to the recent bust-up in FL over the state's removal of the "Duty To Retreat" requirement on homeowners, that required them essentially lock themselves in their bedrooms or flee their home entirely rather than actively resist an intruder.

Rationally and logically, defending your domicile is silly - they're just things.

Note that this is not something that I subscribe to.

You can try to over-ride your 2 billion year old bio-logics.

Oh, I never doubted the military utility of the rock-from-space. The problem is that Lucifer's Hammer is the ultimate munchkin option: you destroy the vast majority of resistance outright, yes -- and render the planet largely unusable by your own forces for 5-10 local years, at least. If that suits your racial or military doctrine, cool; otherwise, you have to go down and dig them out.

Why do I need to dig out the dead?

Perfectly possible, but like so much else, unverifiable in cannon.

And that is why I call it speculation.

Now THAT'S an understatement!

http://volcano.und.nodak.edu/vwdocs/...roup4_new.html

The hole in those warplans - I was actually involved in some small-unit/battalion-level tactical planning in the late 80's...and, no, don't bother asking - is that there is no viable logistic/material base to work from to 'bootstrap' back to c.1890-tech.

The start points I was given were small rural communities, and their machine shops. We wouldn't be building locomotives and radios right away, but 1890's tech was within reach within the decade, and a mid twentieth century tech within the generation. You are being unduly pessimistic and underestimating the organiztional skils available among the survivers.

In a very real sense, the higher you rise on the tech ladder, the harder, faster and farther you will fall when/if it all goeth SPLAT! As an example, had Y2K been as bad as was feared, it would hve had the same effect as a nuclear attack; the effects would have taken a few months to fully mature, but mass starvation in the US would have resulted within 6 months. Why? Simple.

Actually a very pessimistic view, that is not necessarily true. The die-offs you postulate are entirely possible, the recovery rates you sevwerely underestimate.

Most people have barely 1 week's worth of food on their shelves. Due to the efficiency of just-in-time delivery systems, the vast majority of grocery stores have c.3 days of stock on their shelves - assuming normal buying levels. Should a panic begin - and rest assured, a real Y2K or a nuke attack will most certainly cause mass panic - you can expect stores to be stormed within 4 hours

Katrina showed that the timeline you cite is relatively accurate. What you fail to take into account is the national warehoused foodstocks we wqould divert to human consumption. We would include as part of our sustenance base foodstuffs that we dry store for our livestock. That carries us through the first and second growing seasons. DISTRIBUTION is the problem. The people would have to walk to the food. BIG PROBLEM for us..... We are a huge country. MJost of our population is along our seacoasts. Most of our stored foodstocks is in the interior.

But since most of our populatin kill will be coastal? The food/survivor ratios are not unmanageable. Once again it is the DISTRIBUTION until we can get the farming going again.

The problem here is that virtually no one remains who knows how to subsistance-farm. Remove access to industrial/collectivist farming, and most people will starve in fairly short order.

More undue pessimism. People adapt.

Subsistance farming remains part of the general knowledge base. Dessimination of the knowledge, and the seeds might be a problem. But not as big a problem as getting the lazy American out there with his hoe and plow to grow his truck garden. Starvation will solve that.

That 100million figure will double - at least - within 12months of the OOPS!

Fifty million; and that is me being pessimistic.

Not at all. However, history demonstrates that no resistance movement survives for very long without significant outside assistance - in fact, Castro is the one and only example of a completely successful indig. revolution in the 20th Century: ever single other revolt that succeeded had considerable external assistance.

http://www.icdc.com/~paulwolf/gringo...revolution.htm

Not even Fidel.

I don't see the Colonies getting that level of assistance at all.

Not unless they retain an industrial base under their own control.

Inferance from comments by Baltar and Cain at various points in the series, coupled to the obvious independence of the ILs.....It's completely speculative, which is why I made it conditional.

http://www.crystalinks.com/persia.html

Darius' sons; they killed each trying to play King of the Medes. I expect no less than that from the IL's. That didn't break up the empire. That took an Alexander.

Unless the Cylons run into one(John Sheridan) they should be okay.

As always;

[WarMachine]

Originally Posted by Damocles

You can try to over-ride your 2 billion year old bio-logics.

Misunderstanding: I am neither logical nor rational - I not only joined the Marine Corps, I reenlisted.....

Originally Posted by Damocles

Why do I need to dig out the dead?

You don't -- See my reference to using the planet. Unless you're the bad guys in "Chronicles of Riddick", most militaries want to actually use their conquests in the short term.

Originally Posted by Damocles

The start points I was given were small rural communities, and their machine shops. We wouldn't be building locomotives and radios right away, but 1890's tech was within reach within the decade, and a mid twentieth century tech within the generation. You are being unduly pessimistic and underestimating the organiztional skils available among the survivers.

The flip side being that said shops don't usually process their raw materials - they import the bar stock and blanks from elsewhere...and recycled junk is only a stopgap.

Also, pessimism works - it gives you a realistic appraisal of your chances.

Originally Posted by Damocles

Actually a very pessimistic view, that is not necessarily true. The die-offs you postulate are entirely possible, the recovery rates you sevwerely underestimate.

Not at all. You have die-offs from several different factors, depending on the exact circumstances. These die-offs remove knowledge from the local base, making it ever-harder to accomplish tasks in a downward spiral until, at the local level, you have too few skills remaining to maintain any sort of local industrial base, as people focus all of their energy and time on eating.

The trend will eventually reverse itself, but every warplan I've read makes extraordinarily wild assumptions on local recovery abilities.

More below.....

Originally Posted by Damocles

Katrina showed that the timeline you cite is relatively accurate. What you fail to take into account is the national warehoused foodstocks we wqould divert to human consumption. We would include as part of our sustenance base foodstuffs that we dry store for our livestock. That carries us through the first and second growing seasons. DISTRIBUTION is the problem. The people would have to walk to the food. BIG PROBLEM for us..... We are a huge country. MJost of our population is along our seacoasts. Most of our stored foodstocks is in the interior.

But since most of our populatin kill will be coastal? The food/survivor ratios are not unmanageable. Once again it is the DISTRIBUTION until we can get the farming going again.

**cracks knuckles**Logistics is my specialty.

This view is completely dependant on the type of "OOPS!". Note the massive effort for Katrina, and the complete chaos that was made of that. Now, multiply that damage and chaos to include c.40% (I'm in a generous mood) of the rest of the country, and you start to see the problem. Increase that percentage to c.80%(and I'm still being generous), and you get collapse.

Nothing pessimistic about it -- it's a pretty simple arc.

As to interior warehousing, the string (for the uninitiated) usually goes: Producer-Wholesaler-Distributor-Retailer-Consumer, with a possible additional layer of Regional Transshipment between Distribution and Retail.

Right now, as I write this, small farmers are going out of business - and have been for a generation...literally - because the price of food is so low that it's very nearly more expensive to pull the food out of the ground than you can sell it for. Industrial farms can handle the hit, but the small farms - who generally produce more usable crops per acre - can't. (The artificiality of this situation is irrelevent to the discussion at this point.)

At each point along this chain, there is a small backlog of product - it can never be very large, since most nodes in the line are limited in their physical space, and - time being money - they can't afford to risk their already-thin profit margins by sitting on produce that is becoming increasingly inedible - and thus, unsellable - by the minute. Note that this also applies to stocks of non-perishables, as the rule is applied full-spectrum.

Result? Once the OOPS! occurs, the chain is broken in several places. With nowhere to send their product, said product sits in place, where, if it is not consumed or destroyed by [insert your favorite disaster], it rots into sludge.

Also, note that a significant amount of fresh produce in the chain comes in from overseas.....

Addititonally, your model is flawed - if in fact it assumes a realistic nuclear exchange - in that you are ignoring the effects of fallout-via-wind-dispersal (and its attendant effects of Strontium-190 on the food chain), as well as the mass of high-value command, communication and resource targets in the interior...to say nothing of the "cool-off"(the only thing TTAPS even came close to getting right) caused by the fallout-induced cloud cover.

For the uninitiated: No -- "nuclear winter" is a fallacy.

Originally Posted by Damocles

More undue pessimism. People adapt.

People have to eat, too....I'll let you ponder that one.

Originally Posted by Damocles

Subsistance farming remains part of the general knowledge base. Dessimination of the knowledge, and the seeds might be a problem. But not as big a problem as getting the lazy American out there with his hoe and plow to grow his truck garden. Starvation will solve that.

Since when? Subsistance farming is a complicated process, and does not yield quick or large results.

You have to remember that most of the (mostly) well-meaning people who wrote those warplans were academics whose main idea of "farming" involved a hand trowel in Mother's garden of petunias.

Let me make this as plain-language as I possibly can: If you do not have a food garden in the ground when the OOPS! happens, and do not have at least a one-year-per-person-in-your-house supply of food ready, you will be in severe trouble very shortly.

If you try to survive something like this - to say nothing of "recovery" - by relying on academic knowledge without preparation, you're dead.

Sorry: that's not me being snarky, petty or cruel; that's just the way it is.

The "Mad Max" movies are an optimistic view of the reality.

I prefer the quote attributed to Einstein(whether he actually said it or not):

"I do not know with what weapons World War Three will be fought. I do, however, know what weapons World War Four will be fought with -- sticks and stones."

[Damocles]

Originally Posted by WarMachine

Misunderstanding: I am neither logical nor rational - I not only joined the Marine Corps, I reenlisted.....

Alpha.

You don't -- See my reference to using the planet. Unless you're the bad guys in "Chronicles of Riddick", most militaries want to actually use their conquests in the short term.

That depends on the objective. As I pointed out before, The Colonials are a space based manufacturing civilization. Battlestars didn't appear out of thin vacuum. There is infrastructure behind those Alligators. To a machine logic that means a dangerous space based competitor. If the biologics are mostly clustered on planets?

What does a machine need with a planet? He doesn't. A bio-logic does. Throw a rock and wait for the fallout to settle. A few decades in a thousand year war is nothing.

The flip side being that said shops don't usually process their raw materials - they import the bar stock and blanks from elsewhere...and recycled junk is only a stopgap.

Millions of tons on hand and ready to be melted down(cars.)

Also, pessimism works - it gives you a realistic appraisal of your chances.

Wrong word, defeatism.

Not at all. You have die-offs from several different factors, depending on the exact circumstances. These die-offs remove knowledge from the local base, making it ever-harder to accomplish tasks in a downward spiral until, at the local level, you have too few skills remaining to maintain any sort of local industrial base, as people focus all of their energy and time on eating.

You know then that the national survival plan triages the knowledge base.

The trend will eventually reverse itself, but every warplan I've read makes extraordinarily wild assumptions on local recovery abilities.

Those must not be the ones which with I'm familiar. The assumptions I'm used to seeing are total loss of communication and infrastructure, mass panic and chaos, requiring whatever surviving military to impose martial law to restore public order.

More below.....

And on we go.

**cracks knuckles**Logistics is my specialty.

And I will read.

This view is completely dependant on the type of "OOPS!". Note the massive effort for Katrina, and the complete chaos that was made of that. Now, multiply that damage and chaos to include c.40% (I'm in a generous mood) of the rest of the country, and you start to see the problem. Increase that percentage to c.80%(and I'm still being generous), and you get collapse.
Nothing pessimistic about it -- it's a pretty simple arc.

To the other members of this board, let me apologize for the blunt language herein this reply. I was in the middle of that FUBAR. The press reported horror stories were at once a misrepresentation of the true chaos and foulups up and down the chain of responsibility and a reflection of the real truth seen in a mirror very darkly. For those of you in Louisiana you have my sympathies. That state government is, well Louisianans know about that. As for FEMA and Homeland Security? Chertoff and Brown between them were so busy passing the buck you couldn't keep up with their three card game monte.

You remember Exercise Pam? That FEMA 2004 paper exercise predicted step for step, and almost snag for snag, the SNAFU that Katrina turned into. I still can't get over Nagin ordering all those refugees to the Superdome. UNBELIEVABLE!

I don't regard Katrina as a fair test of the ability to respond to a crisis. Working it was like being stuck in Bizarro World, where you set in motion a simple event for example; a bus convoy to evacuate people, and you would find some local police had barricaded a vital bridge along the route to "protect their community" from looters. Takes a whole day to clear that up. Or maybe you wanted to commandeer some 4x4s or swampboats. Have to get clearance. No seizing of private property in the midst of a public emergency?

Don't get me started on the breakdown in law enforcement........or common sense by the crisis managers.

As to interior warehousing, the string (for the uninitiated) usually goes: Producer-Wholesaler-Distributor-Retailer-Consumer, with a possible additional layer of Regional Transshipment between Distribution and Retail.

I'm glad to see you included the regional warehousing step.

Right now, as I write this, small farmers are going out of business - and have been for a generation...literally - because the price of food is so low that it's very nearly more expensive to pull the food out of the ground than you can sell it for. Industrial farms can handle the hit, but the small farms - who generally produce more usable crops per acre - can't. (The artificiality of this situation is irrelevent to the discussion at this point.)

At last count two million small farmers and dropping

At each point along this chain, there is a small backlog of product - it can never be very large, since most nodes in the line are limited in their physical space, and - time being money - they can't afford to risk their already-thin profit margins by sitting on produce that is becoming increasingly inedible - and thus, unsellable - by the minute. Note that this also applies to stocks of non-perishables, as the rule is applied full-spectrum.

30 day turnaround on cereal grains.

Result? Once the OOPS! occurs, the chain is broken in several places. With nowhere to send their product, said product sits in place, where, if it is not consumed or destroyed by [insert your favorite disaster], it rots into sludge.

http://www.nass.usda.gov/ne/agrifact/agf9906.htm

Enough to feed 100 million people two years if they can get to it.

Also, note that a significant amount of fresh produce in the chain comes in from overseas.....

Problem is that they, overseas, rely on us more to feed them, than we rely on them to feed us. Back to the China example, a third of their merchant fleet is used to transport FOOD imports.

Addititonally, your model is flawed - if in fact it assumes a realistic nuclear exchange - in that you are ignoring the effects of fallout-via-wind-dispersal (and its attendant effects of Strontium-190 on the food chain), as well as the mass of high-value command, communication and resource targets in the interior...to say nothing of the "cool-off"(the only thing TTAPS even came close to getting right) caused by the fallout-induced cloud cover.
For the uninitiated: No -- "nuclear winter" is a fallacy.

Incidence of cancer is up 4% and you have one cold winter? Tough. Shouldn't have been tossing bombs.

People have to eat, too....I'll let you ponder that one.

Gives them an incentive to get organized. Works better if you have a plan with one guy in charge who knows what he is doing.(Are you listening FEMA?)

Since when? Subsistance farming is a complicated process, and does not yield quick or large results.

Only if you restrict it to one man one farm. Think co-ops or better yet Kibbutzen. That is the kind of build from the ground up organization in GROUPS that you are going to need. This planning was not designed around rugged individualists-it was designed around rugged villagers and small townpeople.

You have to remember that most of the (mostly) well-meaning people who wrote those warplans were academics whose main idea of "farming" involved a hand trowel in Mother's garden of petunias.

Sad to say when I thought of post apocalypse farm planning, the first thing I wanted to know was the estimated survivable horses available for drawing plows. Then I looked at available seed sources. (No not your local feed and hardware, try looking at your local woods; or if you live in the great plains the local wild grains already in the ground and growing.

Let me make this as plain-language as I possibly can: If you do not have a food garden in the ground when the OOPS! happens, and do not have at least a one-year-per-person-in-your-house supply of food ready, you will be in severe trouble very shortly.

7-14 days. Water is a more immediate issue.

If you try to survive something like this - to say nothing of "recovery" - by relying on academic knowledge without preparation, you're dead.

Helps, if you grew up on a farm.

Sorry: that's not me being snarky, petty or cruel; that's just the way it is.

You are just being kind. Confront the gentle readers with the breakdown of healthcare, the lack of water, crime, and so on (Cannibalism etc.). Get them really depressed.

The "Mad Max" movies are an optimistic view of the reality.

If we are at Mad Max levels within ten years after the OOPS! then I am optimistic the full recovery timelines hold.

I prefer the quote attributed to Einstein(whether he actually said it or not):

"I do not know with what weapons World War Three will be fought. I do, however, know what weapons World War Four will be fought with -- sticks and stones."

There is that pessimism again.

Most likely: if things get realy bad, we'll be back to the musket and the sword.

As always;

[Tabitha]

The question of why the Cylons did not “rock” the Colonies is easier to answer than it seems. The most obvious answer is, because they didn’t. If they had, the Galactica would not have been able to rescue the rag tag fleet. But that’s too simple an answer. The Cylons didn’t do it because they either could not, or would not. I think it is actually a combination of both of these reasons. To explain further, we can break down the facts of the episode Saga Of A Star World. In this episode, it was shown that the Cylons did not have the ability to maneuver their Base Stars in close enough to the Colonies to attack them directly. Instead, they engaged in a charade to trick the Colonial home fleet into assembling in one place. So there is an implied ability on the part of the Colonies to track large masses that move as fast as Light Speed. Most large heavy bodies in space, such as asteroids and meteors do not tend to fly that fast, nor do they tend to change course. So to send twelve of them towards the Colonies would have been easily detected and that would have been just all too obvious an attack. There would have been several of them launched, if any were, simply because, if that method of attack had been adopted by the Cylons, then certainly they would have reserved that severe of an attack for the military and large population centers of the Colonies. Planets like Aerilon and Picon are known, by books and articles, as the most likely places for the Colonial Warrior training centers. So certainly, if one was to attack using such a slow easily detected, and far too destructive weapons, it would be wisest to do so on the primary centers of defense.
There is a lot of things to imply that the Cylons were not only unwilling to use asteroids as weapons, but also were unable to. An attack on the Colonies by the Cylon forces seems to have been an incredible success; however, I think it was actually only a marginal success for them, and perhaps a tactical success, but a strategic failure for them. The initial attack seems to have been quite a rapid and easy success, but if so, why the delay in the follow up attack? I believe it was a taxation of their resources that they could ill afford. I believe that the attack was to wipe out the humans, but NOT the Colonies. The primary reason for my belief in this is that any space faring race would have one major limitation. It would be the same limitation that prevented sailors in the days of win and sails. It’s the same reason we do not just up and fly off to Mars. It’s the same reason we play at “Nation Building” instead of nuking the Middle East. Fuel. The Raiders that attacked the fleet were suicide troops. This is evident in the series when it is pointed out that they had to refuel from vulnerable tankers to get close enough to the Colonies to attack. Those same tankers were likely dry after refueling so many Raiders, or certainly were unprotected, and thus likely to be destroyed, so those Raiders were considered a loss. So why would the Cylons not send more fuel? They couldn’t. That would also explain why they did not send many of their obviously large fleet of Basestars in to mop up the Colonies after the attack. They simply couldn’t. Just as the Japanese could not send more than three waves of aircraft in to attack Pearl Harbor. Fuel. I suggest that the Cylons were after the same thing that everyone was after in the seventies, when the series was aired. Fuel shortages were easy to understand, this country was going through one, which made it something that everyone could relate to. This mindset wouldn’t have been too far off to the writers, even in Hollywood, there was a lack of fuel. Since the original Battlestar Galactica often reflected the times it was written and aired in, then there would be reason to believe that such a concept would have been a primary motivation for the Cylons to do such a horrific sneak attack. They needed the fuel that the Colonies had stockpiled. They didn’t need the humans, but they DID need the fuel, the raw fuel source, and the refineries. The Colonies, not knowing the motivation of the Cylons, would find the behavior of the Cylons to be strange and confusing. Indeed, the actions of the Cylons was often strange and confusing. The Cylons obviously had the ability to out run the rag tag fleet, to assemble a substantial force of ships, as well as “seed” areas of space with huge asteroids, had they adopted such a strategy. Yet, they didn’t. They often seemed confused, or inept. Perhaps this can be explained by their having a limited ability to move large numbers of ships. Certainly the resources required to move extremely large celestial bodies would be considered a complete waste of time and fuel, since any minor course change by the rag tag fleet would make all the resources burned up, simply a waste.
The question is though, why didn’t they “rock” the Colonies. Well, they couldn’t get that many large rocks headed towards the Colonies, accurately, or without being seen. Also, as a space faring race, the Colonies certainly would have established shipping lanes, which they would monitor for just such things, to protect the slow freighters and shipping craft. Also, there would be some form of Radar or Radio Telescope sites used to track the stars and warn the Colonies of threats such as an asteroid. It wouldn’t be hard to believe that the Colonies would have something similar to the gun on Ice Planet Zero. Perhaps not to the scale of that gun, but certainly capable of sweeping the shipping lanes. So that would prevent that type of attack from having any chance at all of succeeding.
Finally, I believe that they Cylons didn’t want to launch such an attack, basically because that sort of thing is so primitive. They were obviously very much inclined to over build everything. They didn’t believe in simple snub fighters, they used large three man craft. They didn’t use Basestars that were sleek and simple, instead they used what looked like two ships stuck together in the middle. They didn’t just carry a gun, they had to carry a sword as well, quite over the top. This tendency to over engineer even the most simple of things, makes it hard to believe that they would fall back on throwing rocks at the Colonies. In fact, the many remarks made by the Cylons, regarding the primitive races, makes this even more likely to be the case. A people can be judged by their words and philosophy. The Cylons were arrogant, over confidant, and slow to accept change or news other than what they expected to hear. That type of mentality leads to battle plans that allow for little “on the fly” alteration. That type of attitude allows for little lower level strategy, and relies far too heavily on upper level command decisions, which come far too late in most cases. Proof of this is the Soviet battle doctrine which did not allow individual unit commanders to alter battle plans without permission from their Divisional Command, or higher. This was evidenced in the many defeats that the Cylons suffered in the series when they were not able to get help in time, or were afraid to make changes, or simply made changes, but hid that fact from their commanders. Lucifer was known for this.
So why did they not “rock” the Colonies? It was a tactic that was “below” them, or they did not have the resources to shift enough large celestial bodies towards the Colonies, or they could not do so accurately, or the Colonies would have been able to defeat such an attack, or the Colonies couldn’t be attacked that way without tipping off the Colonial Warriors to the Cylons lies, or the Cylons couldn’t risk destroying the resources of the Colonies that they were after to begin with, or…..
Why would they have? It would be a good way to break planets, but if that was the case, then why even attack the fleet at all? If they intended to destroy the planets of the Colonies, then it would make the most sense for them to simply launch millions of meteorites at the Colonies, ranging from automobile sized to ones the size of Texas, or larger. The sheer number of them would overwhelm the possible defenses that the Colonies might have developed. But no rocks were thrown, so we have to accept that the answer is one of those suggested above, or another answer that cold be added, and would likely be some variation of the ones listed.

[Damocles]

1.Wow. That is a huge post to answer. I will try to keep it short.


2. In Saga of a Star World, the Cylon tanker ruse would be more explainable by simply noting, that the tankers were easier to HIDE than a fleet of base-stars. As to the fuel concerns? In space you could launch from a thousand light years away and that far ago and coast to your eventual targets. You only need those burn seconds of fuel as a rocket when you are maneuvering. The rest of the time you coast.


3. You don't need to ring Picon's gong with a speed of light Mt. Everest. 15 kmps is quite sufficient to wreck a populated planet.


4. The Japanese didn't attack after the second strike at Pearl Harbor because they were afraid of pilot attrition. They had lost 9% of their carrier pilots and were worried about their trained reserve.

5. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mini-ma...sma_propulsion

That is how you move a rock without rocket fuel as a strategic weapon.

6. I am aware of the fuel problem;

http://forums.colonialfleets.com/showthread.php?t=12689

7. Space is huge. You would have trouble seeing the RT fleet, inbound asteroids, or even finding something as large as a planet at 80 AUs if you didn't know exactly where to look.

8. Do you know just what 1x10e23-24 joules means in a beam weapon? That is what you would need to vaporize Mt. Everest. I believe that is equivalent to about 200 Katrinas? Those rocks are hard to stop unless you find them and nudge them. Guess where the Cylons are? Herding the rocks. That's one way the Cylons can force the Colonials out of their defenses to fight the Cylons where they want to fight.

(There's another play right there! "The Defense of Aquaria"; the Battlestar Rycon has to go out to intercept a Cylon planet cracker aimed at Aquaria

9. I tend to agree with your interpretation of the Cylons' self-assessment. However, I always saw the Cylon technology as being "clunky". They over estimate themselves. Their technology is rather limited in its utilization of its potential.


As always;

[Jan Reinar]

Maybe the Cylons did not “rock” the Colonies because they are machines if they were programmed to don't do it they will not do it! They claim to be "Guardians of the Order" and maybe Order means that they can destroy a trouble intelligence race but not a world.

They will take the Colonies with "conventionals weopons" no matter how large their casualites could be!

I think that Tabitha scenary works with the Cylons as never would works with a "Human Enemy"! This his the great advantage to have the Cylons as vilans many illogical situations for humans work fine with them!

[Tabitha]

I still insist that there was something ON the colony planets, something the Cylons desperately needed, that made them attack. They couldnt risk damaging the planets, only the population centers. They had to kill or drive off the humans to get "it" whatever "it" was. So it makes sense that they would have to find a way to draw the humans out and kill them. But how to do that? This is a tough question because, the colonies were aware of solium based explosives. It doesnt take someone with a brain the size of Damocles to realize that the planets of the colonies were NOT all around one sun. That is impossible. The orbital paths of that many planets circling a sun within the life limit that humans exist in would be a gravitational nightmare, not to mention the whole bumper car problem. So attacking the colonies would mean gathering their fleets into one parade line, which they did. Otherwise, you attack one colony, and the others launch their WMD's which certainly would spell an extinction level event for the aggressor. If the cylons could rock the colonies, the colonies could rock cylon. Since the cylons certainly could not rock them all precisely at the exact same time, with stealth rocks (joke) then one of the colonies would get a return shot, and then mutual destruction ensues. So just like with the cold war, if one side refrains from using the big guns, the other side may to, and at least one species is assured survival.
Obviously the cylons needed planets. The series refers to cylon cities and civilians, as well as the cylon home planets (plural) so the cylons place some strong value on having a planet. Its likely that they do so because resources are a groovy thing to have when your building stuff. The cylons seem to like to build stuff. They build all kinds of stuff. Im sure, theres some cylon out there whos job is to just sit around and think of stuff to build. Why not?
So that means you gotta have "stuff". If you ever lived in a college dorm, you know that having stuff means storing it too. Planets are neat like that, you can fit a lot of stuff on planets. I mean you wouldnt believe the number of International Cheerleading magazines you could store on just one planet alone! So having lots of planets means you could store even more stuff.
Now the colonies had something really froody that the cylons wanted. I dont know if it was fuel, or food, or just digital watches, cus they make people happy for a while, or maybe it was just the poetry or they just needed a good cup of Starbucks coffee, but whatever it was, they couldnt break the planet, cus then the coffee spills onto the Cheerleading magazines and you end up getting a paper cut trying to wipe them off, so you have to take off your digital watch and it falls down the drain in the sink, and gets all sorts of crud on it, and whos to blaim? The Imperious Leader! So, there you go, they didnt rock the colonies because the Imperious Leader knows how much it sucks to have a cruddy watch and spill coffee on Cheerleading magazines!

tabbi

[Damocles]

Originally Posted by Tabitha

I still insist that there was something ON the colony planets, something the Cylons desperately needed, that made them attack.

<snip>


Now the colonies had something really froody that the cylons wanted. I dont know if it was fuel, or food, or just digital watches, cus they make people happy for a while, or maybe it was just the poetry or they just needed a good cup of Starbucks coffee, but whatever it was, they couldnt break the planet, cus then the coffee spills onto the Cheerleading magazines and you end up getting a paper cut trying to wipe them off, so you have to take off your digital watch and it falls down the drain in the sink, and gets all sorts of crud on it, and whos to blaim? The Imperious Leader! So, there you go, they didnt rock the colonies because the Imperious Leader knows how much it sucks to have a cruddy watch and spill coffee on Cheerleading magazines!

tabbi

Okay! I'll buy that. It sounds a lot more sensible than what got us into Iraq!

Frank