OT: Comcast-Disney ?

BST · February 11th, 2004, 02:09 PM

Comcast has made an unsolicited $54 billion bid for Disney.

Check the link for the full story:

http://apnews.excite.com/article/200...D80L9CN01.html

I'm sure how this one would go, even if there is agreement amongst the 2 parties, with regards to government approvals. Having a "provider" owning THAT MUCH content is downright scary.

(On the other hand, would Comcast subscribers get free passes to Disney World??)

Darth Marley · February 11th, 2004, 02:22 PM

Comcast subscribers will not get anything for free. I will assert that right now.

I despise the managment of both companies.

The current offer is about 110% of stock value. Owners are not biting at that low a premium.

I also wish that we could get DMCA repealed.

BST · February 11th, 2004, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Darth Marley

Comcast subscribers will not get anything for free. I will assert that right now.

I despise the managment of both companies.

The current offer is about 110% of stock value. Owners are not biting at that low a premium.

I also wish that we could get DMCA repealed.

Hey Darth,

"Comcast subscribers will not get anything for free. I will assert that right now."

You'll get no argument from me, in fact, they'll probably jack our rates halfway through the roof just to finance the merger, if it comes to pass!! (It was nice, for a fleeting moment, to dream just a bit !)

Expect some movement on the bid. I also agree that Disney's board will surely reject it. They'll want a better price. I could see it going to about $30/share, give or take $1 either way.

nccdee · February 11th, 2004, 02:57 PM

Wall Street did say that this year could be big for mega merger. Comcast seeks about 53% of controlling stock (Stock A). They are appealing to individual stock holders (going to the the representative of pension funds). It ironic that George Mitchell (former sentor and member of Disney board) has been meeting with these same representative about creating a succession plan if and when Eisner leaves.

In other mega merger news, Vodafone is offering $37 bn bit for AT&T Wireless. If successful, Vodafone would need to sell its 45% stake in Verizons. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3470177.stm

If the plan falls through, I would not be surpised if Vodafone makes a hostile takeover of Verizons to expand it markets and services in the US. I would welcome that since Vodafone allows roaming from country to country and still you the same home plan at no additional charge. Vodafone already uses 3G but uses a different standard (UMTS), while Verizons does not have 3G (Third Generation) and uses CDMA2000 standard. You can read more about 3G. http://www.three-g.net/3g_standards.html

Another big merger is JP Morgan buying BankOne. It allows JP Morgan to have a banking presence in the Southwest.

nccdee

jewels · February 11th, 2004, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BST

(On the other hand, would Comcast subscribers get free passes to Disney World??)

And what about Comcast stock owners?

BST · February 11th, 2004, 03:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jewels

And what about Comcast stock owners?

Some get the gold mine, some get the shaft!

jewels · February 11th, 2004, 03:46 PM

:tongue:
seriously, my husband called me today going "what's Comcast? they want to buy Disney, don't we own some of Comcast? and while he's on the phone he's digging through his computer for his stock tracking toys

:laugh: Finance MBAs are scary folk.

Darth Marley · February 11th, 2004, 09:12 PM

One thing that really irritates me about Comcast. Say they charge $50/mo for basic cable in my market. A few miles down the road, in a less populated region, they charge $20/mo less. Seems like with a higher population density we would get a break, as install and maintainance costs are lower. But no...

shiningstar · February 12th, 2004, 12:14 PM

I would think that the justice dept might DENY that Merger as it
might be considered a monopoly.

nccdee · February 12th, 2004, 02:29 PM

Shiningstar (...monopoly). Not really. Athough Comcast own some Cable channels, it main business is in cable, which is mostly located on the east coast. Comcast has said they were interested in keeping the Theme Parks. Dinsey purchase of Fox Family Channnel (now ABC Family Channel) was a mistake, so I would not be surprise if Comcast would sell of some these properties.

A merger plan is submitted to regulator to show how conflict of interest would be resolved (regulators will allow some time to sell off certain assess). For example, Vodafone want to buy AT&T Wireless, but Vodafone would need to sell its 45% ownership of Verizons. It would sell its assest after it purchased AT&T (if it goes through).

Another thing, we don't know what Comcast over business plan/strategy is. They could be looking to re-invent themselves in to new company. Vivendi principle investors were in the Telecommunication business until they bought Universal. Now they are looking to get back into that by selling Universal.

nccdee

shiningstar · February 12th, 2004, 04:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by nccdee

Shiningstar (...monopoly). Not really. Athough Comcast own some Cable channels, it main business is in cable, which is mostly located on the east coast. Comcast has said they were interested in keeping the Theme Parks. Dinsey purchase of Fox Family Channnel (now ABC Family Channel) was a mistake, so I would not be surprise if Comcast would sell of some these properties.

A merger plan is submitted to regulator to show how conflict of interest would be resolved (regulators will allow some time to sell off certain assess). For example, Vodafone want to buy AT&T Wireless, but Vodafone would need to sell its 45% ownership of Verizons. It would sell its assest after it purchased AT&T (if it goes through).

Another thing, we don't know what Comcast over business plan/strategy is. They could be looking to re-invent themselves in to new company. Vivendi principle investors were in the Telecommunication business until they bought Universal. Now they are looking to get back into that by selling Universal.

nccdee

Thanks Nccdee

BST · February 12th, 2004, 06:16 PM

To expand a bit on what I mentioned above:

The general make-up of the market is that you have "producers of content" and "providers of service". With this proposed Comcast-Disney arrangement, the end result would be is "a producer of content AND a provider of service" being the SAME company. On a small scale, this can be overlooked, without too much harm but, if enough of these types of arrangements pass muster with Justice, FCC, etc, what you could have is too much control over what we (are permitted to) see concentrated in too few hands.

That's what worries me.

Presently, we have a good system of checks and balances. Efforts should be made to keep it that way.

BST · February 12th, 2004, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jewels

And what about Comcast stock owners?

If the merger goes through, Comcast stock owners' shares would reflect ownership in the newly combined company. Disney stock owners would have their shares converted to Comcast (I think the initial ratio was 0.42 Comcast shares for each Disney share -- that will change).

nccdee · February 12th, 2004, 07:19 PM

I don't expect there to be any major changes except to the Disney board. Anyone remember AOL-Time Warner? In the beginning AOL was in charge. Last year the last of the AOL Executives were finally removed from the company and now Time Warner is in complete control. AOL strategy was to cosolidate and create merger of Time Warner (publishing, movies, television, music) in to a single Entertainment Network through AOL. Never happened. Time Warner policy now is to run each division on its own. (you notice that AOL has been drop from their title). It seems to be working as Time Warner stock has double in less than a year. More on at www.timewarner.com

I would hope the Comcast will learn from AOL-Time Warner mistakes.

You can see the powerpoint presentation of the Comcast proposal at their website www.pressnews.net/cmcsa/

bsg1fan1975 · February 13th, 2004, 03:36 AM

just heard that Comcast's rates are going up in my neck of the woods! Thank god we don't have it! I just hope that the deal falls through because if they looked at other mergers that have gone this way they will see the long term results of what transpired down the road. (Ex: Vivendi and Universal!)

nccdee · February 13th, 2004, 08:23 AM

I've been watching the business news on Fox, CNN and CNBC. The talk has been about the Comcast proposal. Some believe Comcast will be successful, while believe it won't. But nearly all agreed that Disney will be taken over by some kind of merger within a year. I am looking forward to watching Cashin' In on Fox News and see what their reaction will be.

nccdee

BST · April 28th, 2004, 06:11 PM

Well, the DEAL is DEAD!

http://money.excite.com/ht/nw/bus/20...n28303132.html

Comcast Withdraws Bid for Disney

Wednesday April 28, 8:10 PM EDT

By Tom Johnson

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Comcast Corp. on Wednesday withdrew its unsolicited $48.4 billion offer to buy Walt Disney Co. (DIS) after the entertainment conglomerate steadfastly refused to open negotiations.

Shares of Comcast (CMCSA), the largest U.S. cable television company, rose slightly after the decision, which came amid pressure from wary shareholders and drew praise from analysts and investors. But it left unanswered where the fast-growing company might look to expand next, or whether the failed bid might hamper its growth plans.

"Unfortunately, it has become abundantly clear that Disney does not share our interests," Comcast Chief Executive Brian Roberts said on a conference call. "I am very comfortable with our decision to withdraw even though it is not the outcome I had hoped for."

The decision handed a major victory to embattled Disney Chief Executive Michael Eisner, who still faces a revolt from shareholders contending he does not have a strategy to ensure long-term growth.

A Disney spokesman did not immediately return calls seeking comment. The entertainment and media conglomerate's board contended Comcast's offer severely undervalued the company and on Tuesday after a meeting it reiterated its backing for Eisner and his strategy, which calls for Disney to stay independent.

Philadelphia-based Comcast may one day reemerge with a new bid for Disney, especially if the entertainment conglomerate falters in its bid to raise earnings, analysts said. But for now, Roberts said he will look for other ways to expand in content, distribution and technology.

"We're moving on," Roberts said. "Our desire is to find attractive ways to grow. We have an enviable footprint that opens up opportunities."

ADELPHIA NEXT?

Roberts, considered one of the media industry's savviest dealmakers, gave investors a possible hint about his intentions on a conference call on Wednesday, when he said he expected Comcast to take a serious look at Adelphia (ADELQ), the bankrupt cable company that recently announced it was seeking a buyer.

"They have a number of systems that fit our footprint," Roberts said.

Analysts said Comcast might make a joint bid for Adelphia with Time Warner Inc. (TWX) and swap cable systems.

Comcast reported a first-quarter profit on Wednesday. It also indicated it remains on target to generate consolidated free cash flow of $2 billion this year, giving it sufficient firepower to pursue other deals.

Comcast's stock jumped as much as 5.7 percent before falling back some. It gained 23 cents, or 0.8 percent, to close at $30.20 on the Nasdaq, and Disney fell 23 cents, or 1 percent, to $23.95 on the New York Stock Exchange, slightly below its closing price a day before Comcast announced its bid in February.

"This is good news from my perspective," said Craig Moffett, an analyst with Sanford C Bernstein. "Obviously, there a lot of Comcast investors that are going to be gratified that they've dropped the bid."

CABLE COMMITMENT

Roberts opted to make the Disney bid public in February after Eisner rejected his initial overture. But the combination of Disney's refusal to negotiate and concerns by Comcast shareholders about the size of the bid led Roberts to decide to withdraw the bid Tuesday night after consulting with a tight-knit group of advisers for two days, sources close to the company said.

The Disney bid had led some analysts and investors to question whether Comcast believed it could sustain a cable-only strategy going forward. Roberts acknowledged those concerns, but said he did not share them.

"Some of our shareholders felt that we were signaling that we had lost confidence in the cable business," he said. "I'd like to make one critical point. We love the cable business." (Additional reporting by Michael Learmonth, Kenneth Li, Peter Henderson and Derek Caney)

©2004 Reuters Limited.

thomas7g · April 28th, 2004, 06:34 PM

i really hope that Eisner loses his job. That would be better for everyone.

bsg1fan1975 · May 1st, 2004, 11:36 AM

i hate to think of what will happen to my cable rates if Adelphia is bought out by Comcast. The cable company here is a subsidary of Adelphia.

BST · May 1st, 2004, 05:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bsg1fan1975

i hate to think of what will happen to my cable rates if Adelphia is bought out by Comcast. The cable company here is a subsidary of Adelphia.

It probably will happen eventually.

Actually, in my situation, Comcast has been a good partner (and no, I don't work for them). We have all of our services with them -- cable TV (all of the premium channels), Internet, and phone service. It all works very well and the price for all 3 services is not bad -- approx $180/mo (and that total includes a 2nd phone line and long distance calls).