Since this discussion had come up ove on the SyFy forums, I thought I'd repost my theories over there. I'm then going to address some of what I read here.
There is no canon evidence to suggest that there were ever only 12 Battlestars. In fact, Mr Larson has said this is a fan creation. There were only 5 Battlestars seen at any one time in the Beginning of the Show, making up the first fleet. But in dialog in both Saga of a Starworld and Gun on Ice Planey Zero, 6 Battlestar names given. 5 in Saga, and a 6th, Columbia given in GOIPZ.
Now, concider what we see. We see 5 battlestars, in a nice neat linear formation in the forward view shots. These are the shots that usually establish there were 5 battlestars there.
But when we see the interior shots of the council meeting. there is at leazst 1 Battlestar (will have to rewatch to confirm 1 or 2) visible in the window. This is a profile shot of the battlestar, meaning it's probably in formation to the side of the ship. It's possible there were more battlestars at the "peace treaty signing" but for monetary reasons, and cause it didnt' add anything to the production at the time, they only composited 5 ships at any one time.
I can look up the full list of battlestars listed at the battle of cimtar if anyone likes.
Now, about the colonies and the 12 "Pearl Harbors" that occur. Nobody has ever said whether or not there was a "home fleet" of ships based within the colonies or even if each colony had a planetray defense force. The only one ever mentioend was on Caprica. In Murder on the Rising Star, Karabdis, Baltar's main pilot and confidant, was accused of sabataging the Planetary defense networks on Caprica. This is why he went into hiding and changed his name. He was a wanted criminal. So at least on Caprica, there were ground defenses that could have helped repel the Cylon invasion. But it was turned off.
Based on the Control Baltar seemed to hold over President Adar, I wouldn't be surprised if all planetary defense forces, and any home fleets were given a Furlon (vacation time) to celebrate the coming peace. A grand, "be with your families in this historic moment" touch. Adar had no ability to see Cylon treachory. Or Baltars. He saw the Cylons looking for peace and him being the President who will give it to his people after 1000 yahrens.
My personal thoughts are that Baltar was drugging him somehow. And Baltar never left his side till the attach began to make sure that Adar never relented on the Stand down order.
Even having a patrol under fire from an unknown force, a HUGE one, since the Cylon attack force had to be on the Atlantia's scanners too, didnt' give Adar anything to reconcider. Peace was coming. And he only realized his mistake seconds before dying.
The Military had their hands tied behind their backs. Some probably most, wanted to believe the peace, and willingly went along with everything, and those, like Adama were too few to make a difference.
It's a combination of wishful thinking and sabatage that casued the destruction of the colonies.
Now, it's been pointed out that Dialog notes that only the Galactica was able to launch Vipers. And at the time of Starbuck's Landing 25 of the 67 or sop Vipers were fromt he Galactica. That leaves more then half the Vipers form somewhere else. Now, after the Initial report of no other Vipers launched, it's possible that during the attack, before hte cylons were able to disable all the battlestar's launch bays, some Warriors were able to launch themselves. But it's also possible that some of those Vipers and pilots were from the "home Fleets" I mentioned above. And from groud positions. Even During the attack on Dec 7th, Hickum Field was able to launch 2 Fighters during the attack itself.
It's improbable that the Colonial fleet only consisted of Battlestars. Patrol ships, escorts, Tankers, supply ships, cruisers, CARRIERS etc.
Anyone else looking to restart the thread?
