Actually, I think China has more than the capability to go to the moon.
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However, we have the will, the technology, and determination
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The technology, but not the will. I've seen your government continually cutting funding for Nasa, even when the fact that China was aiming for space became public knowledge (nearly 3 years ago, now). Nasa doesn't have the will, simply because it's dominated by "good old boys" who aren't treating it as a competetive organisation. They aren't set to land on Mars for at least... oh, 10 years minimum, and probably 20. China, on the other hand sees getting to the moon as a source of supreme national pride, a chance to say "we're one of the big boys now". I can see them well on the way to the moon by the end of the decade, especially considering the fact that a lot of the advances they made to the stock Soyuz they bought from Ruissia, adding half the size again and giving it more power. Even the part that they left up has power and the ability to remain as a satellite.
Unfortunately the Chinese are also operating on a theme of military superiority, which is why I don't make these predictions with much levity. They want to be the #1 in space. Getting to the moon will give them that. I think the CHinese more than any other nation have the capacity to actually get to and exploit the moon, rather than just landing on it and taking home some rocks. The US and NASA need to get off their collective arses and actually work, instead of relying on 20 year old
experimental vehicles. Oh yes, and never forget that. The shuttle is an experimental vehicle, not a production orbiter. It was never meant to fly for this long.
